Silospen has a much higher droprate for ist from p8 countess compared to p1, because the idea that any items over 6 are deleted is not factored inīasically you get about 17.4% less runes than your calc shows, in p1. Her normal monster drop table is rolled first, so increasing the player difficulty will increase the amount of items from the normal drop table and reduce the amount of. In total she can drop up to 6 items, taking into consideration player difficulty. Table 2: Runs to find or cube at least 1 of rune with 63.2 confidence level. The Countess has 2 drop tables, her normal monster drop table and a special rune drop table. If you want proof - just look at that calc's droprate for ist on p1, then look again at p8 p8 is guaranteed to drop 5 items + 3 runes, then delete 2 runes because of the cap of 6 items, so p8 is much worse (as you probably know) for runes from countess. Table 1: Average runs for direct drop of rune. Unfortunately its always the Special Rune drops that are lost when over 6 items (the cap) drop from countess, so in p7 or p8, she always drops exactly ONE rune from her special rune picks Your drop chance does not account for the chance that more than 6 total items drop, between the normal items and the secondary special rune drops, in which case any items over 6 are deleted and don't drop (she could drop 5 items + 3 runes, so up to 8 items). There is a pretty impactful error in your calculator btw (yes i know its not your calc, you're using silospen, which has been known to have errors its wrong about countess runes)
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